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milestone_4
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milestone_4 [2024/03/18 13:03] scott [Overview] |
milestone_4 [2024/03/22 17:52] (current) scott [Test and Pass Off] |
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| - As you may recall from STAT 201, the maximum likelihood estimate of a probability is simply the ratio of successful trials to the number of total experiments. | - As you may recall from STAT 201, the maximum likelihood estimate of a probability is simply the ratio of successful trials to the number of total experiments. | ||
| - Calculate the 95% confidence intervals for each of your estimated probabilities. | - Calculate the 95% confidence intervals for each of your estimated probabilities. | ||
| - | - For help see this [[https://youtu.be/gClMYzniK3M| video]]. | ||
| - Remember from STAT 201, if all of you were to run the same experiment to estimate a probability p, and then calculate confidence intervals at the 95% level for your estimate, we would expect 95% of you, on average, to actually bound the true value of p within your upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval. See Section 5.2 (pp. 338-344) of your STAT 201 textbook for a reference. Given a desired width of your confidence interval, and no knowledge of p, Example 5.14 may be useful in determining the value of n you require. Use a 95% confidence interval for your calculations. | - Remember from STAT 201, if all of you were to run the same experiment to estimate a probability p, and then calculate confidence intervals at the 95% level for your estimate, we would expect 95% of you, on average, to actually bound the true value of p within your upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval. See Section 5.2 (pp. 338-344) of your STAT 201 textbook for a reference. Given a desired width of your confidence interval, and no knowledge of p, Example 5.14 may be useful in determining the value of n you require. Use a 95% confidence interval for your calculations. | ||
| - Notice that the width (difference between upper and lower bounds) of the confidence interval shrinks as n grows. This matches our intuition that more data will result in better estimates. | - Notice that the width (difference between upper and lower bounds) of the confidence interval shrinks as n grows. This matches our intuition that more data will result in better estimates. | ||
| - Produce a table summarizing your results. Include the value of n, the number of successful trials at each distance, your estimates of the probabilities p<sub>20</sub>, p<sub>40</sub>, and p<sub>60</sub>, and the 95% confidence intervals for each estimate. | - Produce a table summarizing your results. Include the value of n, the number of successful trials at each distance, your estimates of the probabilities p<sub>20</sub>, p<sub>40</sub>, and p<sub>60</sub>, and the 95% confidence intervals for each estimate. | ||
| - | - Compare your confidence intervals with data from another team. You can just use their computed confidence intervals directly, you don't need to recompute confidence intervals on their raw data. | + | - Compare your confidence intervals with data from another group. You can just use their computed confidence intervals directly, you don't need to recompute confidence intervals on their raw data. |
| - Answer these questions: is one system better for all distances? Or, does the answer to this question depend upon the distance, e.g., is one system better at 20 feet and the other system better at 40 feet? | - Answer these questions: is one system better for all distances? Or, does the answer to this question depend upon the distance, e.g., is one system better at 20 feet and the other system better at 40 feet? | ||
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| - Show that the 'Hit Indicator LED' on the board and top of the gun comes on for target kit 2 | - Show that the 'Hit Indicator LED' on the board and top of the gun comes on for target kit 2 | ||
| - Verify that gun 2 cannot be hit by an opponent when the 'Hit Indicator LED' is on | - Verify that gun 2 cannot be hit by an opponent when the 'Hit Indicator LED' is on | ||
| - | - Verify that hits can be reliably detected when the kits are at least 40 feet apart. | + | - Verify that hits can be reliably detected when the kits are at least 40 feet apart |
| - Demonstrate that there are no false positives | - Demonstrate that there are no false positives | ||
| - Point gun 2 at the room lights and demonstrate that hits are not recorded | - Point gun 2 at the room lights and demonstrate that hits are not recorded | ||
milestone_4.1710788607.txt.gz ยท Last modified: 2024/03/18 13:03 by scott
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